Example decision

See how addjourney turns a decision into a learning loop.

A realistic example of how a founder can document a high-stakes decision, get AI feedback on bias, and review the outcome 90 days later.

Decision

Hire a Head of Sales

Confidence72%
StakesHigh
Review dateJ+90
OwnerFounder

Context

Why this decision now

The company has reached €450k ARR and the founder is still managing all enterprise sales. Growth is slowing because the founder cannot handle prospecting, demos, closing and customer success at the same time.

Options

Three paths considered

  1. Hire a senior Head of Sales now
  2. Hire two junior account executives
  3. Delay hiring and keep sales founder-led for another quarter

Chosen: Hire a senior Head of Sales now.

Expected outcome: increase monthly new ARR from €35k to €60k within 6 months.

Initial assumptions

What the founder is betting on

  • The current pipeline is strong enough for a senior hire.
  • The founder can transfer sales knowledge quickly.
  • The candidate will ramp up within 90 days.
  • The company can afford the fixed salary and commission plan.
  • More structured sales management will increase conversion rate.

AI analysis

Bias detection & critical questions

Potential cognitive biases

  • Overconfidence: the ramp-up period may be underestimated.
  • Confirmation bias: recent successful sales calls may be over-weighted.
  • Planning fallacy: recruiting, onboarding and process transfer often take longer than expected.

Critical questions

  • What exact sales process will be handed over?
  • What does success look like at 30, 60 and 90 days?
  • What happens if the new hire does not close any deal in the first quarter?
  • Is the pipeline large enough to justify a senior sales profile?
  • What leading indicators will be tracked before revenue results appear?

J+90 outcome review

What actually happened

After 90 days, the Head of Sales improved CRM discipline and pipeline quality, but new ARR only increased from €35k to €43k. Ramp-up was slower than expected.

Initial confidence72%
OutcomePartial success
Calibration gap+18 pts overconfident

Lesson learned

The hiring decision was strategically sound, but the founder underestimated onboarding time and overestimated pipeline maturity. Future sales hires should include a 30-day process transfer plan before the hiring decision is finalized.

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